BMW Stock Plunges on Downgraded 2025 Outlook Amid Tariff and China Woes

BMW shares tumbled 8.5% in European trading after slashing its 2025 earnings guidance, citing delayed U.S. and German customs refunds and persistent weakness in China. The automaker now expects pretax earnings to decline slightly next year, reversing prior forecasts of flat performance. RBC analysts called the tariff developments particularly damaging given BMW's status as Germany's top exporter by value.

The company halved its free cash FLOW projection for its automotive division to €2.5 billion and narrowed profit margins to 5-6%. BMW attributed the revisions to postponed refunds totaling hundreds of millions from U.S. and German authorities, now expected in 2026 rather than 2025. While maintaining expectations for EU tariff reductions to 0% from 10%, the guidance shock has exposed vulnerabilities in BMW's export-dependent model.